Webinar recap
The Rise of One Nation
How One Nation's growing vote share is reshaping preference negotiations and crossbench dynamics for GR teams.
14 April 2026 · Sally Mackenzie, Founder and Managing Director, Delta Advisory
The Australian political landscape is shifting. With One Nation rising in the polls, the Coalition faces a strategic crossroads: reclaim the centre, or shift further to the right? Guest speaker Sally Mackenzie, founder and Managing Director of Delta Advisory, joined Advoc8 to unpack the Coalition’s predicament, the factors behind One Nation’s rise, and the broader political implications.
Key takeaways:
- A crisis of trust and generational realignment. The rise of minor parties is fuelled by a broader erosion of institutional trust - polling shows fewer than half of young Australians believe democracy is the preferable form of government. Millennials and Gen Z also lack the party loyalty of older generations, and the historical pattern of voters trending conservative as they age appears to have broken down.
- One Nation’s evolution. One Nation is no longer the fringe party it was in the 90s. Its growth is now driven by disillusioned Liberal voters moving right and marginal Labor voters in regional areas - a recent Essential poll found 45% of Labor voters would consider voting for the party. Recent results, including the South Australian election and the upcoming Farrer by-election, show One Nation leading in the primary vote, though the preferential system remains a major hurdle as major-party preferences typically work against them.
- The breakdown of the traditional Coalition formula. The Liberal–National partnership is under real structural pressure. Leaning into One Nation’s framing on immigration and culture helps win regional seats but repels urban and professional voters - and with the Coalition holding just 9 of 88 metropolitan seats, winning back the cities is critical. Pivoting to the centre, though, risks losing further ground to One Nation in the regions.
- Implications for advocacy and business. The rules of engagement are changing in this more fragmented landscape. In a low-trust environment, a company’s social perception often matters more to decision-makers than the practical detail of a policy issue - and organisations need to engage across the broader crossbench, especially in the Senate, to be effective.
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