Polling Snapshot: One Nation Continues to Rise

Polling released in May points to an ongoing realignment of Australian politics, with One Nation consolidating its position in the polls. This comes in the wake of One Nation’s victory in the Farrer by-election on 9 May, where One Nation won its first lower-house seat in an election or by-election.

A detailed, seat-by-seat breakdown from a Redbridge Group | Accent Research poll suggests that if an election were held now, Labor would scrape back into Government with a bare majority of 76 seats. One Nation would become the formal opposition with 53 seats, while the Coalition would collapse to just 12, none of which would come from the Nationals. 

Preferences are doing a lot of heavy lifting in this shift, and with a volatile and unpredictable electorate, outcomes in many seats are far from certain. Very small swings can change who ultimately wins many seats. 

We’re still two years out from a Federal election, and political conditions can change dramatically in that time. However, the signal from voters right now is unmistakable: they’re looking for something different.

In the meantime, plenty of MPs will be watching these numbers nervously, with a growing list of seats from both sides of the aisle now in play.

Also in Pulse..

• Tax changes addressing intergenerational equity were a core feature of the Federal budget. The changes include the introduction of the Working Australians Tax Offset, an additional $250 for working Australians. There will also be two more tax cuts, with the 16 per cent tax rate dropping to 15 per cent on 1 July 2026 and then 14 per cent on 1 July 2027. Reforms to negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions aim to improve housing affordability. 
• The Federal Budget included big spending on Health, with $25 billion in funding for public hospitals. This funding is part of the renewed National Health Reform Agreement; a partnership between the Australian Government and the States and Territories. 
• Significant changes to the National Disability Insurance Scheme have been introduced to Parliament through legislation. The Coalition supported the legislative changes through the House of Representatives, but their support for the changes is not guaranteed in the Senate . The Bill is currently subject to a short Senate inquiry. 
• Opposition Leader Angus Taylor’s budget-in-reply speech proposed to index income tax brackets to stop bracket creep, starting with the lower tax brackets and then expanding to include the higher income brackets. He also proposed to cap migration based on the number of homes built per year, and prevent permanent residents from accessing certain welfare payments.

Notable Mentions/Highlight

While attention in Australia has been on the Budget, polling and Senate Estimates, Foreign Minister Penny Wong has been in New Delhi for meetings with Quad nations (Australia, India, Japan and the US). Ministers agreed to initiatives on critical minerals and fuel security, and discussed concerns over Indo-Pacific security and maritime security matters.