Coalition dysfunction and the rise of One Nation

The year opened with an early return to federal parliament to debate the Government’s response to rising antisemitism, including hate speech and gun reforms. But what began as intense political pressure on Prime Minister Anthony Albanese quickly became a turning point for the Coalition.

Facing insufficient support for an omnibus bill, the Prime Minister split the package in two. Separate deals with the Greens and the Liberals secured passage, but at a cost to Coalition unity.

The hate speech laws proved a watershed, with Nationals leader David Littleproud formally announcing another split after three Senators were demoted for breaking shadow cabinet solidarity. For Liberal Leader Sussan Ley, the episode has added to ongoing leadership speculation, with previous contender Angus Taylor widely seen as her future replacement.

Enter One Nation, Pauline Hanson and Barnaby Joyce, who have emerged as a clear beneficiary of voter dissatisfaction with both major parties, buoyed by high-profile defections and polling support at record levels. Whether this support converts into seats remains uncertain, but the trend reflects a broader fragmentation of the vote and rising populism, both at home and abroad.

Following the Bondi attack, and several weeks of political pressure, the Prime Minister established a Royal Commission into Antisemitism and Social Cohesion, appointing former High Court Justice Virginia Bell, with Richard Lancaster SC as counsel assisting. The inquiry will examine rising antisemitism and religious extremism, the adequacy of law enforcement responses, and the circumstances surrounding the attack.

In the north, debate over the Port of Darwin has intensified following Labor’s election commitment to unwind the 99-year lease held by Chinese-owned Landbridge. Despite threats of retaliation from Beijing, national security experts are urging the government to push ahead with divestiture.

Also in Pulse...

• The Queensland Government is planning to introduce gun reforms when it returns to parliament in coming weeks, fast tracked following the attack in Bondi. Premier Crisafulli is resisting calls to participate in a planned national gun buyback, but will still consider the recommendations of the inquest into the 2022 fatal ambush of police officers in Wieambilla, with a response due in May.
• The Reserve Bank has announced an interest rate rise up a quarter of a percentage point to 3.85 per cent, the first rise since 2023, with all major banks announcing it would pass on the increase in full. Treasurer Chalmers and Prime Minister Albanese have signalled a focus on continued economic reform to reduce inflation pressures, despite claims government spending is to blame.
• The Victorian and Federal Governments have pledged $160 million in additional support for bushfire affected communities. The bulk of the funds will go towards the recovery and clean-up efforts. In Queensland clean up is under way following ex-Tropical Cyclone Koji, with Federal and State funding being made available to fund recovery efforts and small business grants.

Following lengthy negotiations, the Federal Government has reached an agreement with the States to contribute an additional $25 billion in health funding for public hospitals as part of a new five-year $220 billion commitment. In exchange the states will match a $2 billion investment to Thriving Kids, the new initiative which will move children with mild to moderate developmental delays and autism off the National Disability Insurance Scheme. Thriving Kids is due to commence on October 1.

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